Guide · CRM
What Is a Weighted Pipeline Forecast in CRM?
A weighted pipeline forecast estimates the revenue a sales team can expect in a period by counting each open deal at its value multiplied by its probability of closing, rather than at its full value.
The short answer
In Suntel360 CRM, the weighted forecast takes every open deal expected to close in the chosen period, converts its value to the reporting currency and multiplies it by its win probability: the deal's own, if set, otherwise its stage's. The sum is the forecast. The same deals are also grouped into commit, best-case and pipeline bands.
How the forecast is built, step by step
1. Every stage carries a win probability
Each organisation keeps its own pipeline stages, and each stage has a win probability from 0 to 100. A new organisation starts with six stages: Lead at 10%, Qualified at 30%, Proposal at 50%, Negotiation at 75%, Closed Won at 100% and Closed Lost at 0%. Admins and managers can add stages and change their probabilities in the CRM settings; deleting a stage is for admins only. A deal can also carry a probability of its own, from 0 to 100. It is optional; a deal without one relies on its stage.
2. The deal's own probability comes first
For each deal, the forecast uses the deal's own probability if one is set; otherwise the probability of the stage the deal is in; otherwise zero. Moving a deal to another stage does not rewrite its own probability, so an override entered early keeps applying until someone changes or clears it. A deal with no probability of its own, in a stage with none, counts at zero: it adds nothing to the weighted total and falls into the pipeline band.
3. Only open deals closing in the period count
The forecast covers one period at a time: a week from Monday to Sunday, a month (the default), a calendar quarter, or a custom range of dates, worked out in UTC. A deal counts only while its status is open, and only if its expected close date falls inside the period, with both end days included. New deals start as open. An open deal with no expected close date is left out of every forecast figure, however likely it is to close.
4. Values convert to the reporting currency
Before weighting, each deal's value is converted to the organisation's reporting currency, which defaults to INR. Conversion multiplies the amount by the rate the organisation has configured for that currency; a deal already in the reporting currency, or with no currency, is unchanged. If a deal's currency has no configured rate, it is counted one to one and the dashboard shows a warning naming the currency. Only admins can set exchange rates, and each change is recorded in the audit log.
5. Weight each deal and add them up
The weighted forecast is plain arithmetic: each counted deal's converted value multiplied by its probability divided by 100, summed across the period. There is no model behind it and no adjustment for history. It is recomputed from current deal data every time the dashboard asks for it, so editing a deal's value, probability or close date changes the next figure, and no earlier snapshot is kept. The dashboard's Sales Forecast section shows it as the Weighted Forecast card, beside win rate, won value and a period picker.
6. Group the same deals into bands
The same open deals are also split into three bands by probability: commit at 70% or more, best case from 40% to 69%, and pipeline below 40%. Band totals use each deal's full converted value, not the weighted value, so they show how much is in play at each level of confidence. The thresholds are fixed in the product, not set per organisation. Status, not stage name, decides what counts: a deal still open in a Closed Won stage at 100% is counted as commit.
7. Won and lost deals move to win rate
Marking a deal won or lost sets its status and records the closing time. From then on it leaves the weighted forecast and the bands, and counts in the period that contains its closing date: win rate is won deals divided by won plus lost deals closed in the period, as a rounded percentage, and won value is the converted value of the deals won. Marking a deal lost never moves it to the Closed Lost stage, and marking it won moves it only when a stage is chosen.
Worked example: one month of open deals
Sample data| Deal | Value | Probability used | Weighted value | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: Negotiation stage | 200,000 | 75% (stage) | 150,000 | Commit |
| B: Proposal stage, own probability 80% | 100,000 | 80% (deal's own) | 80,000 | Commit |
| C: Qualified stage | 300,000 | 30% (stage) | 90,000 | Pipeline |
| D: Proposal stage | 50,000 | 50% (stage) | 25,000 | Best case |
| E: Lead stage, closes next month | 400,000 | Not counted | 0 | None |
| F: Negotiation stage, no close date | 120,000 | Not counted | 0 | None |
| Weighted forecast | 650,000 counted | 345,000 | ||
| Band totals (full values) | Commit 300,000; best case 50,000; pipeline 300,000 |
Sample figures for one month, in the reporting currency, using the default stage probabilities. Deals E and F are open but not counted.
What Suntel360 CRM does, and does not do
It does
- Weights each open deal by its own probability, or by its stage's when it has none.
- Counts only open deals whose expected close date falls in the chosen week, month, quarter or custom range.
- Converts every deal to the reporting currency, and warns when a rate is missing.
- Splits the same deals into commit, best-case and pipeline bands at fixed 70% and 40% thresholds.
- Reports win rate and won value for deals closed in the period.
It does not
- Use AI or machine learning in the forecast: it is arithmetic over value, probability and dates.
- Break the forecast down by rep or team: it covers every deal in the organisation.
- Take quotas into account: quotas feed the managers' leaderboard, not the forecast.
- Keep history: the figures are recomputed from current deals each time.
Questions
How is a weighted pipeline forecast calculated in Suntel360 CRM?
Each open deal whose expected close date falls in the period is converted to the reporting currency and multiplied by its probability divided by 100, and the results are summed. The probability is the deal's own, if one is set, otherwise its stage's, otherwise zero. Won, lost and undated deals are left out.
What is the difference between commit, best case and pipeline?
They are bands by probability over the same open deals in the period: commit at 70% or more, best case from 40% to 69%, and pipeline below 40%. Band totals use each deal's full converted value, not the weighted value, and the thresholds are fixed rather than set per organisation.
Does changing a deal's stage change its probability?
Only if the deal has no probability of its own. A deal's own probability overrides its stage's and is not rewritten when the deal moves stage, so an override set early keeps applying. A deal without one takes the probability of whatever stage it is in when the forecast is computed.
Why is an open deal missing from the forecast?
An open deal counts only when its expected close date falls inside the chosen week, month, quarter or custom range, so a deal with no close date, or one dated outside the period, is left out. Deals marked won or lost leave the forecast and count towards win rate and won value instead.
Do sales quotas affect the forecast?
No. Managers can set a quota per rep per month, and a separate leaderboard compares each rep's closed-won value with their quota and shows whether they are ahead, on track or behind. The forecast itself reads only deal values, probabilities, close dates and exchange rates, for the whole organisation.